Progress 8 Is not Working! – TeacherToolkit


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How can we measure faculty examination efficiency ethically?

As with all examination measurements, efficiency monitoring evolves regardless of progress being relative to no matter you determine to measure it towards.

Because of the nature of adjusting goalposts, I do know as quickly as I publish this weblog publish, a lot of it is going to develop into out of date. Hopefully, the message will keep the identical…

Progress 8 throughout English faculties has already had an enchanting journey in its quick historical past. It measures common pupil progress made between key stage 2 (age 11) and basic certificates of secondary training (GCSE) examinations (age 16).

5 areas of concern

In a brand new (comparatively) thought-piece printed by BERA, lecturers talk about whether it is nonetheless value calculating progress 8, impressed by a Evaluate and analysis of secondary faculty accountability in England: statistical strengths, weaknesses and challenges for progress 8 raised by COVID-19.

If we think about off-rolling, exclusions, rising psychological well being points and elevated EBacc entries – nonetheless woefully astray although – as with all examination indicators, there’ll inevitably be some unintended penalties.

The analysis argues 5 areas of concern.

  1. Selection of pupil consequence attainment measure.
  2. Potential changes for prior attainment and background traits.
  3. Selections round which faculties and pupils are excluded from the measure.
  4. Presentation of Progress 8 to customers, statistical mannequin selection, and uncertainty calculation.
  5. Points associated to the volatility of college efficiency over time

Amidst all the federal government and think-tank (wonk) hyperbole, I just lately wrote about real reform for faculties. I highlighted that some policymakers will ignore this analysis as a result of it means that Progress 8 – the metric we now have all relied on so beneficial for years – is not working.

Put merely, this metric doesn’t inform us something about what’s working in our faculties.

Doable options to Progress 8?

At the moment, Progress 8 doesn’t sufficiently talk that the variation at school Progress 8 scores and accounts for under round a tenth of the general variation in pupil progress throughout England. Sure, a tenth! Maybe all our faculties are doing a extremely good job no matter standing, construction or management?

The analysis affords some attainable tweaks:

  1. The attainment measure is closely weighted (70:30) in favour of the normal educational topics!
  2. Pupil background shouldn’t be represented/adjusted to offer better perspective
  3. Pupil mobility shouldn’t be taken into consideration; holding faculties to account for these they’ve taught earlier than ‘on-rolling’ to a different faculty – that is already altering due to Ofsted coverage
  4. The metric creates unsure predictions as to the long run efficiency of colleges (for fogeys specifically)
  5. That progress 8 accounts for under round a tenth of general variation in pupil progress (see graphic beneath).

A review and evaluation of secondary school accountability in England: Statistical strengths, weaknesses, and challenges for ‘Progress 8’

A former colleague raised a good suggestion (for Ofsted too):

Publish knowledge within the interim, the median in addition to the imply. This might guarantee we will redress faculties that [are] run in college students’ pursuits, not the adults who run them. Solely then will we get a clearer image of behaviour, which sorts of insurance policies are working, and wherein sorts of faculties.

Till this occurs, we will await commonsense to prevail and maintain proceed to measure apples towards pears and vice versa…

Learn the weblog abstract or the full paper.

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